Hurricane Predictions

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ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2020

 Department of Atmospheric Science
Colorado State University
Fort Collins, CO 80523

 

We anticipate that the 2020 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have above-normal activity.

We anticipate an above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean.

The probability for at least one major (Category 3-4-5) hurricane tracking into the Caribbean is 58% (average for last century is 42%).

 

Forecast Parameter and 1981-2010

Average (in parentheses)

Issue Date

2 April 2020

Named Storms (NS) (12.1)

16

Named Storm Days (NSD) (59.4)

80

Hurricanes (H) (6.4)

8

Hurricane Days (HD) (24.2)

35

Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.7)

4

Major Hurricane Days (MHD) (6.2)

9

Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (106)*

150

Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) (116%)**

160

*Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) - A measure of a named storm’s potential for wind and storm surge destruction defined as the sum of the square of a named storm’s maximum wind speed (in 104 knots2) for each 6-hour period of its existence. The 1981-2010 average value of this parameter is 106 for the Atlantic basin.

**Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) Activity –Average seasonal percentage mean of NS, NSD, H, HD, MH, MHD. Gives overall indication of Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane activity. The 1950-2000 average value of this parameter is 100.

 

See links below to access the source documents, or click here to access the Colorado State University website

 

SUMMARY OF 2019 ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY AND VERIFICATION OF AUTHORS’ SEASONAL AND TWO-WEEK FORECASTS. Read more...

EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2020. Read more...